CONTROVERSY OF ETHIOPIA’S MEGA-HYDROELECTRIC DAM ON NILE RIVER:IS IT REALLY CONTROVERSIAL?

By

Tekleab Shibru Gala,

Associate Professor of Geomatics & GIS Lab Coordinator

Department of Geography

College of Arts and Sciences

Chicago State University

9501 S King Dr, Chicago, IL 60628

Phone: (574) 367-1737

Email: tgala@csu.edu

1.     ABSTRACT

Egypt has been alarmed by Ethiopian’s hydroelectric mega project known as Grand Ethiopian Renascence dam and especially that it is nearing completion. Egyptian president Al Sisi is asserting that Nile River is “God’s gift to Egyptian people” on his twitter, and pursuing United State, Arab league and horn of African countries to coerce Ethiopia into downsizing or abandonment of the project. While Egypt has a legitimate concern, with 100 million of its population depending on the Nile water, the resultant impact of Ethiopia’s mega-hydroelectric energy is however not as controversial. The objective of this article is to present advantages of the Grand Ethiopian Renascence Dam (GERD), particularly to Egypt to help them overcome their nervousness. Grand Ethiopian Renascence Dam (GERD) exploits Ethiopia’s inherent terrain characteristics to efficiently harvest clean and cheap energy. The hydro dam will do so by collecting peak flow water (i.e., excess water) otherwise wastefully let inundating desert by Egyptian Aswan Dam subjected to evaporation loss in an effort to mitigate human and property damages from catastrophic floods. The dam would also trigger a comprehensive watershed management practices that would improve the microclimate of the basin locally, land productively and an overall hydrologic response of the watershed in quality and quantity of water supply.

KEY WORDS:  Nile River, Water Conflict, Hydroelectric Plant, Grand Ethiopian Renascence Dam (GERD), Ethiopia, Egypt

2.     INTRODUCTION

Egyptian president Al Sisi said; “Nile River is God’s gift to Egyptian people” in his twitter account on Oct 05, 2019 (Mohamed Zain, 2019). The president made the statement to reaffirmed to Egyptians and international community that his country is going to take necessary measures to ensure Egypt's water rights. The core message of the twitter sound unpleasant as it emphasizes that Ethiopia cannot use a water from a Nile river or face Nile water-war. It is to be recalled that two (i.e., Blue Nile and Atbarah rivers) of the three tributaries of Nile river are originated in Ethiopia, contributes approximately 85% of River Nile’s water resources.  Besides, Blue Nile (See Figure 1) is also flowing for more than 800 km in Ethiopian territory before departing to Sudan on its way to Egypt.

Fig 1. Blue Nile in Ethiopia

Being home to 80% of Africa’s tallest mountains, Ethiopian Highlands exhibit characteristic hydrological setting. These highlands that made Ethiopia a “water tower” or “roof” of Africa creates a unique hydrologic state and processes responsible for trapping vapor into forming various river systems. These river systems are flowing into Egypt and other neighboring countries such as Sudan, Kenya, Somali and Djibouti. Examples are rivers such as Abay (i.e., Blue Nile), Baro, Akobo, Tekeze, Omo, Juba, Shebelle, Awash, Genale and so on. The rivers are significant for the contemporary very existence of life, civilizations and economic development in these countries, although historically, their uses were limited to supplying drinking water for human and domestic animals. Moreover, source of irrigation water for agriculture and agri-food production (i.e., including fishery production) and with advent of regional trade and commerce made the rivers’ delta and floodplain a preferred habitat for human settlement. The rivers eased navigations, transportation of goods and human waste disposal. Furthermore, these rivers are landmarks and aesthetic for major cities and their population in the region such as Mogadishu (1.3 million), Kisumayo (180,000), Alexandria (3.3 million), Khartoum (5.3 million), Cairo (9.13 million) and Juba (300,000) (See Figure 2).

While Ethiopian rivers are rendering these benefits to the neighboring countries, their use at home is very small. The reasons are, first; in Ethiopian territory, the rivers flow is 400 – 1000m deep valleys beyond people and domestic animals’ reach. Second, they have extremely short-leveled stretch, often interrupted by rapids and riffle (i.e., turbulent and fast-moving river), which made the river none usable for both irrigation and navigation purposes. As a consequence, while these rivers are source of irrigation and domestic water for lucrative agriculture and agri-food production and hundreds of million people in the downstream countries, in Ethiopia, people and livestock are dying for the lack of water and agricultural production is failing for recurrent draught. According to USAID in 2020, 9.5 million Ethiopian populations were exposed to a serious food and water shortage, 4.5 million of children were malnourished and hundreds of thousands of livestock die from draught induced by failed rain. There is none Ethiopian city built along these rivers and in what looks like rubbing salt to a wound, the rivers erode 111 to 140 million tons of fertile Ethiopian soil per year, thereby reducing soil productivity, causing croplands abandonment, and forming badlands and landscape dissected by gullies (Gala et al, 2011; Haregeweyn, et al. 2017;).

The Grand Ethiopian Renascence dam (GRED) is a project aimed at improving this situation. GRED converts the unproductive rivers into a cheap and clean energy harvesting enterprise, without significant attrition flow to downstream countries. The objective of this article is to enlist irrefutable merits of GRED to the region including downstream counties, particularly Sudan and Egypt. The article highlighted enhanced values of Nile river in salvaging the growing economies of the region from their dependency on rather expensive and unclean energy sources. It also pointed-out mitigating solution of GRED on looming large-scale inundation of croplands and catastrophic flooding of settlements along floodplains. The changing environment from growing population and warming climate is forecasted to aggravate these regional phenomena. Finally, it also explained the dam’s triggered widespread and comprehensive “best management practices (i.e., BMP) and rainfall harvesting strategies for Upper Nile watershed on the Ethiopian highlands for sustainable and profitable energy production.

Fig.2. Nile River being the landmark and aesthetic for major cities of downstream countries: a) the city of Khartoum, Sudan and b) the city of Cairo, Egypt (Source: National Geographic)

3.     ENERGY SECURITY

Grand Ethiopian Renascence dam (GERD) (See Figure 3) is, a project launched to harvest cheap and safe energy from Nile river, which is a blessing in disguise for Egypt and other low-lying downstream countries such as Egypt and Sudan. This is only possible because of Ethiopia’s unique suitability (i.e., both the climatic and physical characteristics) for generating a high quality and quantity hydroelectric power. The situation is a reminder of nature’s an absolute perfect creation. While nature has made the Nile water for the welfare the people of Egypt and Sudan in the desert, it also made the rivers momentous and turbulent that Ethiopians generate clean energy from it.

Fig. 3: Grand Ethiopian Renascence dam (GERD)

The topographies of Ethiopian Highlands are characteristically mountainous with high plateaus, deep gorges, river valleys that are dropping, at times sharply, toward the lowlands. Besides, these highlands receive torrential precipitation in the order of 1800 – 2500mm per annum. These rainfall and topographies combined create surface runoffs accumulating in to rivers with multitude of rapids and waterfalls necessary for the installation of productive hydropower plants. According to some estimates, the country has a potential of generating around 45,000 MW of hydropower, which is the second largest potential in Africa, following Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (Williams, 2010). This is equivalent to the average amount of electrical energy generated from 90 nuclear power plants, which is massive for a country otherwise these rivers haven’t had any productive use.

This Energy potential is very important for Ethiopia and her neighboring countries. American Energy security report documented a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic development especially, for developing economies at the early stage.  Thence, energy shortage is massive drag on fast growing economy of Nile basin countries. For instances, reports show that Egypt is unsustainably reliant on non-renewable and non-eco-friendly energy sources; such as natural gas, coal, fossil fuel, and oil products (Park, 2015) (see Figure 4). Hydroelectricity and other renewable energies account for only 4% of over all energy consumption and 80,000 bbl of hydrocarbons is imported per day, to satisfy the energy demands of the country. Developing economies of Egypt and the region will definitely need energy (such as this) for raw material production, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and minerals extraction (including oil and gas). They will also need it for light and heavy manufacturing industries, construction, transportation, business and provisions of other public services

Fig 4: Egypt’s Energy Consumption by sources (Source:  American Energy Security

Project)

Therefore, it is in the interest of acquiring clean and economically cheap energy sources that countries’ must seriously consider opportunities the GERD project present to them. The energy will inevitably accelerate Egypt’s economic growth and create formidable regionally interdependent economies. For example, because of its irrigation agriculture, Egypt can specialize on extensive agricultural and raw material production, while Ethiopia specializes on processing these products. Ethiopia’s energy abundance with GERD, would definitely put her on a better footing to host myriad agro-food-processing plants. In other words, Egypt can stretch an economy that is a foundation for hydropower-based Ethiopia's economy. Such economies can bring much needed peace, and stability to the region, while also effecting a more sustainable social development and economic transformation.

Ethiopia has already branded GERD project as region-serving energy initiative (Xinhua 2018; Mergu 2019). To this effect, the country, which has already provided 100 MW of energy to Sudan, 70 MW of energy to Djibouti and 10 MW of energy to Kenya, is putting forth many ambitious proposals. With the purchase and construction of 500 kV transmission interconnector lines, from a billion-dollar borrowed, Ethiopia is on the way to share her vast hydropower resources with neighboring Southern Sudan, Kenya, Sudan, Somaliland and Egypt.  Although costly, it seems like nothing is deterring Ethiopia, and slowly but surely steady progresses are being made in this direction.

4.     FLOOD MITIGATION AND PREVENTION

Egyptians refer to Nile River as not just a giver of life but also taker. Nile river as “giver of life” is owing to the Nile river’s floods giving life via providing fertile soils and moisture to help grow agricultural and food production. According to the National Water Research Center, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (2007), Nile river supplies 56.8 billion cubic meters of water to Egypt, 97% of overall water need. Eighty six percent of the water is used for agriculture, while 8% is used for domestic use while the remaining 7% is for industrial use. Nile-fed agriculture is a crucial sector in the country’s economy. It supports the livelihoods of 55% of the population while also hiring 30% of the labor force and bringing a quarter of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Additionally, for a water scarce country (i.e., an average of 18mm rainfall per annum), though only domestic use constitutes only 8% the overall Nile water, 95% of 100 million people, living along the floodplain, delta and fan, are dependent on this water. 

Fig. 5: Egypt’s Nile-fed Agriculture. Source: Egypt today

On the other hand, Nile River is “taker of life”, pertinent to the flood from Nile river destroys millions of homes and villages, acreages croplands and kills a number of human life and livestock while also causing various waterborne diseases and deterioration public health conditions. With regards of Nile-fed agriculture, the flood also impacts land preparation, seed sowing, and other on and off-field operations. Several reports allude experiences of Egyptian farmers enduring flood hazard during the stream peak flow, between July and August. Flood wash-off crops and thereby significantly reducing farmer’s net harvest (Satoh, & Aboulroos, 2017). It also causes a waterlogging condition and poor soil aeration, where their farmers have to wait for the land to dry before commencing any land preparation and crop planting, which means reduced crop calendar or shorter available days of growing season. Or else put up with additional production cost of stretching drainage system to drain excess water on top of the regular cost of land preparation and crop husbandry practices. Last year, flood from overflowing Nile River caused killings of more than 78 people, abolition of 41,000 homes and affected the lives of nearly half a million people damaging crops, effecting poor sanitation and triggered various waterborne diseases in Sudan (UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 6 Sep, 2019).

Flood can occur slowly and builds itself up over time, especially when the rivers are having large catchment areas. It is a hydrologic event of inundation, which occur when rate of precipitation exceeds the ability of the soil to soak (infiltrate) that the excess water runoff toward rivers. Flood occurs when rivers overflow their banks into surrounding floodplains or even further uplands. Under natural condition, flood is good for the health of riparian ecosystem, as it is a process that brings moisture as well as nutrient to lives of this ecosystem. However, it can also occur abruptly in response to torrent, heavy and intense rainfall occurrence. Depending on the kind and level of damage it produces, flood can be major, moderate and minor.

A condition for abrupt and catastrophic flood formation is looming in Nile river basin. Frist, rapidly growing Ethiopian population will only intensity the watershed’s Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes (Gala and Boakye, 2019). The watershed’s LULC change characterized by urbanization, deforestation, and extensive cultivation would increase flood frequency and severity, because of impaired soil infiltration and lower evapotranspiration (Schädler et al., 2012; Ebi et al., 2014). Secondly, United Nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts an extreme heat and heavy rain for Ethiopia.  And climate change rises atmospheric temperature to hold more water than it usually does to eventually dump them in the form of heavy and prolonged storms. Therefore, the combined effect of climate LULC change are precursors for catastrophic flood conditions on downstream countries. 

According to National Geographic, a flood damages an estimate that worth $3 trillion dollars worldwide. In United States, where flood prediction and prevention methods are well advanced, flood still causes a damage that amounts to $6 billion and death of 140 people every year (National Geographic-Flood, 2013). For Nile basin’s downstream countries, where such flood forecast and mitigation strategies are not fully developed, though not property enumerated, flood damages are understandably higher. There are estimated 15million people settled in major cities on the floodplains. Most settlements are made by draining wetlands, the ecosystem meant to buffer hazardous effects of flood. Therefore, risk for catastrophic flood will inevitably continue destroying villages, and killing the lives of numerous human and domestic animals.

Egypt’s strategy to cope with this flood problem has been wasteful.  It is increasing the height of Aswan dam higher and higher. However, Aswan Dam is already a hallmark of inefficient water use as it is built in the middle of a desert, where evaporation loss is extremely wasteful (Ebaid, & Ismail, 2010). According to Ebaid, & Ismail, (2010), 10 – 15 billion cubic meters’ water is lost through evaporation from Lake Nasser (i.e., Aswan Dam reservoir) per annum. This is up to 12-18% of the overall water budget of the basin and 55 - 81% of the share of Nile water allocated for Sudan to use as per 1959 Nile agreement. This strategy of building the wall of the reservoir higher and higher would only exuberate the situation as make excess water inundates the neighboring desert lands, thereby increase the size of Lake Nasser or forming other lakes (i.e., Toshka Lakes) in the middle of the desert. Besides, the circumstance is leading to the inundating of the land of Sudan in north and causing involuntary transboundary flood on Nubian’s land.

Fig. 6: Flood inundating of South Sudan (Rosati & Poueme 20, 2019)

Therefore, the strategy of raising the wall of Aswan dam is a reckless water use policy. It doesn’t account the growing Egyptian population, and increasing reliance on Nile River water for agricultural, domestic and industrial needs. GERD and the resultant Millennium Lake’s is a better bet. Egypt must engage Ethiopia and participate in this shared downstream flood mitigation program because GERD can help trap this torrential flood and its impacts thereof. Like what any sitting water (wetlands) would do, the reservoir would be checking the momentum of the torrent, absorbing its kinetic energy and then releasing it slowly. It will have relatively lower surface to volume ratio due to unique topography and hence endure lower evaporative loss, while relatively generating much more energy. The cost of evaporative loss associated with GERD is estimated as 2 – 3 billion cubic meter per annum, which is 500% lower than the loss from Aswan Dam.

5.     WATERSHED MANAGEMENT AND SUSTAINABLE WATER HARVESTING

Watershed management is a useful operation carried out on a geographical area that is contributing water to a river. It is to sustain and enhance a watershed’s both hydrological as well as ecological functions (Shukla, 2020). Hydrologically, watershed provides critical functions of collecting precipitations, soaking or storing some fractions, while releasing excess water to a river in the form of runoff. It also has important ecological function in terms of communities of human, plants, animals and other biogeochemical interactions it supports. Well managed watershed delivers improved supply of quality and quantity water, and reduced frequency and unpredictability of hazardous flood events. It also enhances a more evenly distributed flow through the year, improved base flow and warranted river with lesser load of sediments and other chemicals and healthy ecosystem.

Watershed management is therefore a costly operation too. In united states, billions of dollars are spent on watershed managements of their major rivers. For instances, the state of Colorado alone, deploys various expensive best management practices to manage the rock mountains and plateaus. These landscapes are the starting point of Colorado River, and geomorphological structures through which the river flows, respectively. Colorado river flows in 6 southwestern states for 2,330 km before emptying in Gulf of California.  According to the Getches-Wilkinson center of Natural resources and environment, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado state is deploying more than 520 basin implementation projects to manage the watershed. The management projects, which aims at ensuring statewide quality water supply is at a cost of estimated $20 billion. 

Similarly, in Ethiopian part of Upper Nile Basin, an integrated watershed management is practiced to sustain land’s agricultural productivity (See Figure 7). As part of this management, costly Soil and water conservation, is widely practices. For instances, Professor Hurni, a founding president of the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland’s, estimated that 3.5 million hectares of agricultural lands on Ethiopian highland has been treated by various types of soils and water conservation practices. However, this is only 18% of the cropland needing such treatment and some 12 million hectares of croplands still need similar treatment. A cost associated with these soil and water conservation is approximated by a study conducted on Gedeb watershed in Upper Nile Basin, which covers around 100,000 hectares (Tesfaye et al., 2016). The approximation, which is based on a labor cost of $0.80 USD per day revealed that conservation treatments on average cost $54 USD for a hectare of land and $5.4 million for the watershed.

Fig. 7: Soil Water Conservation Treatment in Upper Nile Basin Ethiopian Highlands (Source: Photo taken by Hurni et at., 2016)

Egypt is perhaps the only country, on earth, that does not do or invest anything for management the watershed of a river, while using, approximately, 78% of its water resources. In economics, such phenomenon is depicted as “Free-Lunch”, a condition where goods and services are attained without any cost an individual. Normally, it is none-existent condition and often the situation come to being when someone else is carrying the cost. It could also be that expenses are obscured or not clearly understood. . It is also like drawing out the maximum dairy products from a cow, while investing nothing on the cow’s nutrition and health. It is unthinkable in dairy farming industry. We are witnessing a situation where Egypt is reaping the benefit while the upper Nile basin black African countries are doing the costly job. Egypt is not naive about this. It is a conscious scheme to harvest maximum possible rain water falling on the upper Nile basin. On an unmanaged watershed, precipitation water runs down the landscape quickly, without soaking the soil, and to feed the Nile river discharging into Aswan Dam. The dam has enabled Egypt to mitigate flood damages, ration and ensure even distribution water resources among the months of the year.

However, the scheme is very shortsighted. Although the scheme has increased the peak-flow during the rainy season, it has reduced discharge for the reminder of the year (i.e., base flow). The rainy season is only for 3 – 4 months of the 12 months of the year. Besides, the Egyptian’s scheme neglected the values of vegetation (land use land cover) and sub-surface (groundwater) in hydrological cycling, thereby risking sustained availability of water and recurrences of drought, for Egyptian, in the long run. No wonder, Egypt is more exposed to drought now than ever in the history. Moreover, the scheme overlooked the wasteful loss of water through evaporation, as the Aswan dam force peak flow water inundate the desert land.

The GERD will give Ethiopia some enormous incentives to further mobilize unprecedented watershed management. The incentives are: Firstly, heavily loaded Blue Nile river would heighten the destructive power the river's sediment load (i.e., soil erosion) need to be checked (Ahmed, & Ismail, 2008). The load may reduce the life span of GERD and/or increase its maintenance cost. Secondly, siltation of the sediment load can also reduce the water holding capacity of the reservoir by filling spaces meant for water storage. Therefore, out of a necessity, Ethiopia will have to implement practices that may include activities such as, but not limited to, selecting suitable land use and land covers and/ or vigorously continue adopting appropriate soil and water conservation practices important for sustained agriculture and agri-food production and by extension quality water supply for downstream countries’ irrigation-agriculture and other domestic use.

Ethiopia’s watershed management practices will also increase the time it takes for a rainfall event to run into Blue Nile. A longer time it takes means that the rainfall will have more time to soak soils and percolate deep to recharge the groundwater system. The resultant change in the moisture regime of the watershed can also create a microclimate with increased precipitation and local cloud-cooling, which suppressed evaporation. Besides, the increased water-table, as a consequence of groundwater recharge, through surface and subsurface water interaction, will feed the Blue Nile river, particularly, during the dry-season. Moreover, if Ethiopia launch the plantation of multipurpose trees, as part of watershed management strategy, further benefit can be accrued. The trees can provide functions of conserving of soil and water as well as improving of soil condition; while also supplying products like foods, fruits, nuts and vegetables and bio-fuels. These products can be used domestically or exported to downstream countries thereby securing and/or ensuring regional food security and self-sufficiency. This is beneficial to all basins’ population, especially in downstream countries such as Egypt, spends up to $4.5 billion, 16% of the country’s total export earnings, on food import (Fick, & Bushra, 2014). It will help buffer the responses of watershed’s hydrology to changing climate, while also maximizing socio-economic and environmental benefits of the river to people in the watershed.

6.     CONCLUSION

Ethiopian highlands are instrumental in condensing water vapor to produce a rain generating Nile river. Additionally, rugged terrains are ensuring accelerated watershed response to a rainfall events, while geological and environmental formations are loading one of the world’s most fertile soils sediment to the river. On the other hand, the same processes, has Ethiopia and the people. In some areas of Nile river watershed, the process degraded as much as 60% of the landscapes thereby limiting suitability to agriculture and other land uses mainly: grazing, forestland, or wildlife.  Ethiopia’s population, agriculture and livestock are suffering from the shortage of water and food. Grand Ethiopian Renascence dam (GRED) is an all round good thing to happen to change the situation.  The dam, mainly aimed at harvesting cheap and clean energy, has a great potential to offset the region’s dire energy deficit and addictions to fossil fuel and other non-renewable and non-eco-friendly energy sources. GERD exploits the unique topographies of Ethiopian highlands to produce the energy resources that will advance benefits of mutual growth and peaceful coexistence. It can bring much needed economic development that will alleviate energy insecurity, poverty, and economic hardship by being a catalyst to regional interdependence, energy independence and economic development.

Moreover, looming environmental and climate changes on the Upper Nile basin would increase the likelihood of intensified and frequent flood events.  Historically floods from Nile rivers peak flows have had various catastrophic socio-economic consequences. So farm the coping mechanism devised to contain this is inundating the desert-land with the excess flood water, which is extremely wasteful use of an already scare water resource. Hence, another advantage of GERD dam, is a mitigation role on flood hazard from peak flows. GERD dam efficiently stores excess water into a reservoir, which shall generate much need hydroelectric power for the region. The landscape and its geographical location make the evaporation loss from this reservoir economical if not contributing to hydrologic (water) cycling of the watershed.  Furthermore, the dam could necessitate appropriate and integrated watershed management, the dam may actually yield the benefit of improved microclimate, and increased water supply, especially during the dry seasons. The management can also boost regional food production and lessen the watershed’s hydrologic response to the impact of changing clime thereby sustaining quality water resources supply for current and future generations.

The hardest and disappointing part of the project is however, the uphill endured and cost incurred to convince the stubborn position of Egypt and their authorities. It is to end relentless blackmail, utter misunderstanding, and inability or unwillingness to see the above mentioned advantages. The world must know that this level of engagement in counterproductive activities would only sink the entire region into unnecessary backwardness, when singlehandedly Ethiopia is working hard, in good faith, for a regionally shared prosperity and blessings.

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